Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Thursday

A rather complex pattern is expected to deliver a significant shot of precipitation and wind with a warm to cold trend. This storm should be most intense Thursday and begin to clear as we enter the weekend. This is a great time to check out the Mountain Weather Forecast for further details! (Link below)WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Freezing level around 1500 m, strong to extreme southerly wind, about 10 mm of precipitation. THURSDAY: Overcast, freezing level starting at 1500 m, lowering to 1100 m by sundown, moderate to strong southerly wind, 8 to 20 mm of precipitation expected.FRIDAY: Broken cloud cover, freezing level beginning around 500 m rising to 800 m, light southerly wind, 2 to 3 mm of precipitation possible.SATURDAY: Scattered cloud cover, freezing level beginning around 500 m rising to 1000 m, light variable wind, no significant precipitation expected.

No significant avalanche activity to report from Tuesday.Avalanche activity on Monday was limited to surface facets and surface hoar sluffing away in steep terrain.There was a rather anomalous size 3.5 that was seen on the Cheakamus Glacier from Whistler March 15th. We don't have details on the failure plane of this avalanche, but it may have run on the mid-February crust.

New snow and rain Thursday will fall on a mix of moist grains, crusts, surface facets and surface hoar. The crust is widespread on solar aspects at all elevations. Both treeline and alpine elevations facing north and east have significant surface hoar and near surface facet development. Some west facing features may have surface hoar on top of a crust which would be particularity problematic. The storms transition from warm to cold should be largely copacetic for our snowpack, but it is expected to generate touchy storm slabs at upper elevations for the short term.5 to 20 cm of wind distributed snow fell last week which came to rest on the mid-March crust on all but high elevation north aspects.50 to 100 cm below the surface is a combination of facets, surface hoar, and/or crust known as the mid-February layer. This interface has not been active recently, but it does continue to produce resistant planar results in snowpack tests. The mid and lower snowpack is strong and well settled.Variable winds in the past month have built up cornices on many ridgelines. They will become touchier as daily temperatures rise and when they are subject to the strong early spring sun on clear days.