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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Nov 27th, 2018–Nov 28th, 2018
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Lizard-Flathead.

Up to 35cm of new snow in the alpine from the storm Monday night and Tuesday will keep the avalanche danger elevated. If you've been out please post your observations to the Mountain Information Network MIN.

Confidence

Low - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

Overnight TUESDAY: Mainly cloudy / Alpine temperature -2 / Light southwest wind / Freezing level 1100 m.WEDNESDAY: Scattered flurries, accumulation up to 5cm in the alpine / Alpine temperature -1 / Light to moderate west wind / Freezing level 1300 mTHURSDAY: Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries / Alpine temperature -2 / Light southwest wind / Freezing level 1200 mFRIDAY: Mix of sun and cloud / Alpine temperature -3 / Light west wind / Freezing level 1000 m

Avalanche Summary

Expect storm and wind slab avalanches to be possible in the alpine from this latest blast of snow Monday night and Tuesday. With warm temperatures, expect to see small loose wet avalanches at lower elevations where the precipitation may have fallen as rain. There have been no recent reports of avalanche activity.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 35cm of new snow has fallen Monday night through Tuesday. This adds an additional load onto a recently formed layer of weak, feathery surface hoar. The distribution of this surface hoar layer is uncertain at this time. South and southwest winds are redistributing the new snow. A mixed layer of melt-freeze crusts and sugary facets sits near the base of the snowpack. The snowpack is deepest in the alpine and at tree line, where you might now expect to find total depths of around 70 cm. These depths taper rapidly at lower elevations.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

New snow combined with wind leading into the weekend has produced wind slabs in the lee of terrain features.
Watch for signs of instability, such as whumphing, shooting cracks, and recent avalanches.Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Loose Wet

Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 1.5