Avalanche Forecast

Low - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

There is significant uncertainty regarding precipitation amounts for Friday into Saturday. Unsettled weather and isolated flurries Sunday onwards. SATURDAY: 5-15cm possible Friday overnight with strong southwest winds. Light flurries easing off throughout the day on Saturday. Freezing level 1600m, alpine temperature around -4 C. SUNDAY: Sunny with some cloudy breaks, moderate southwest wind, freezing level 1700m. MONDAY: Isolated flurries with 2-4 cm possible. Moderate southwest wind, freezing level around 1900 m with alpine temperature around -3 C.

On Thursday, several small Size 1 wind slabs were ski cut on north through east aspects between 1700 and 2200m. Evidence of a large natural avalanche cycle during last week's storm has been reported around the Crowsnest Pass / Sparwood area as well as around Waterton (typically size 2.5 deep persistent slabs). A fresher size 3 avalanche in the Alexander Creek drainage was possibly triggered by a cornice fall on Sunday. Widespread natural activity in the neighboring Kananaskis region suggest conditions may be touchier north of Elkford.Looking ahead, the primary concern is the potential for large deep persistent slab avalanches triggered by natural triggers such as a cornice fall. See the forecaster blog for advice on managing a low probability - high consequence problem (here) and the accompanying photos (here).

Over the past two days we've had 5-15 cm of heavy snow at higher elevations, which sits on a thick hard crust that is quite solid above 1700m. In some locations winds have been strong from the southwest, creating wind slabs on northerly aspects, and isolated features at treeline. Rain has soaked the snow below about 2000 m. Recent rain and sun have left a variety of crusts that are thicker and most supportive in open south facing terrain. Below the new snow and crusts, roughly 50-90 cm of snow sits above the February crust and facet interfaces. In some areas there may still be a poor bond to these interfaces. The bottom third of the snowpack is composed of weak facets and full-depth avalanches over this basal weakness remain a concern.