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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 7th, 2017–Mar 8th, 2017
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Lizard-Flathead.

A week of steady snowfall and occasional strong winds has left large storm slabs and cornices primed for human triggering. Avoid overhead hazards and stick to mellow terrain.

Confidence

Moderate - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

We're looking at occasional flurries and then a more organized system coming Thursday night. WEDNESDAY: Flurries overnight Tuesday with 5-10 cm of new snow, 20-30 km/h southwest winds, alpine temperatures around -7 C. THURSDAY: Cloudy with scattered flurries and up to 3-5 cm of new snow, 10-20 km/h southwest winds, alpine temperatures around -11 C. FRIDAY: Snow Thursday overnight into Friday (10-15cm) , 20-40 km/h southeast winds, alpine temperatures around -8 C.

Avalanche Summary

In the past two days at treeline and alpine, natural storm slab and loose dry avalanches to Size 2 have been reported on south through northeast aspects. Cornices are large and remain easy to trigger. A great image from Sunday illustrates just how surprising the results can be. Click here for details. Several size 1.5 to 3 natural and explosives triggered avalanches were reported on Saturday. Aspects were east through northwest, from 1500m to ridgetop.Natural activity is expected to taper off, but storm slabs will remain likely for human triggering.

Snowpack Summary

Another day, another 10-20 cm of snow falling: The weekly total now stands at roughly 130 cm. At times, strong southwest winds have extensively redistributed the snow and formed large brittle cornices. Over the weekend the new snow came in "upside down" (heavier, denser snow over lighter snow) and is rapidly settling into a slab which sits over a variety of old surfaces including surface hoar, facets, stiff wind slabs, sun crusts, and a rain crust below 1900 m.Isolated basal weaknesses may still exist in shallow snowpack areas and appear to isolated to north-northeast aspects in the alpine.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm slabs remain likely for rider triggering, especially on leeward slopes and behind terrain features that are wind loaded.
Use conservative route selection, choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.Avoid leeward slopes as a thicker, reactive slabs will likely exist.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Cornices

Always look up and avoid exposure to overhead cornices.
Stay well back from cornices.Do not travel on slopes that are exposed to cornices overhead.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3