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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 17th, 2017–Jan 18th, 2017
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Lizard-Flathead.

There is a lot of uncertainty surrounding the intensity of precipitation amounts in the region. Certainly if the freezing level rises in combination with the potential for heavy snowfall and strong winds, the avalanche danger will be elevated.

Confidence

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Wednesday

Weather Forecast

WEDNESDAY: Snow, accumulation 25-40cm with rain possible at lower elevations, strong southwest winds, freezing levels around 1600m.THURSDAY: Snow in the overnight period Wednesday into Thursday morning, accumulations 10-20cm. Cloudy with isolated flurries Thursday during the day, strong southwest winds, freezing levels around 1400m.FRIDAY: Mainly cloudy with the possibility of isolated flurries, light southwest wind and freezing level around 1000m.

Avalanche Summary

Several natural and human triggered size 1 wind slabs were reported on Monday. Expect fresh wind slabs to form and avalanche activity to increase as the wind continues to blow and snow starts to fall Tuesday evening through Wednesday.

Snowpack Summary

Recent winds have caused widespread wind affect in exposed alpine and tree line terrain forming touchy wind slabs on lee features. These are now buried by a blanket of new snow. Last week's 20 cm of low density snow buried a variety of old surfaces (wind scoured, old wind slabs, surface hoar up to 20 mm in sheltered terrain, and/or faceted old snow). Deeper in the snowpack, the mid-December persistent weak layer of facets has been more prominent and reactive in the Corbin area than areas closer to Fernie. The layer is generally considered dormant at the moment in deeper snowpack areas, but its status may change as the temperatures warm throughout the week.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Expect avalanche activity to rise as temperatures increase in conjunction with the potential for heavy snowfall and moderate to strong wind
Watch for signs of instability such as whumpfing, or cracking. Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3