Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 27th, 2015 7:56AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Deep Persistent Slabs and Loose Wet.

triley, Avalanche Canada

South Rockies.

The cooling has started, but it may take a couple of days to recover from the very warm air and high freezing levels.

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Weather Forecast

The freezing level is expected to drop down below 1000 metres by Wednesday morning and then rise up to about 1500 metres during the day. Valley cloud in the morning with a chance of clearing in the afternoon. Freezing level dropping to valley bottoms by Thursday morning and then rising up to near 1300 metres during the day. Valley cloud may persist during the day with mostly clear skies above 1500 metres. Increasing cloud with light Southwest winds and a chance of very light precipitation on Friday.

Avalanche Summary

In the Hosmer area on Monday several slab avalanches size 2.0-3.0 were observed on South aspects in the alpine in a shallow snowpack area, one of these had a wide propagation of approximately 2 kilometres. Recent natural wind-triggered slabs of size 1-2 were observed in the Elk Valley on Saturday on lee and cross-loaded slopes. Cornices were also building. In the SE of the region, a natural size 2 slab failed on the Dec crust at 1800 m on a south aspect. Loose wet natural avalanches to size 1.5 were also observed.Nearby in the Lizard region, there have been several concerning human-triggered avalanches on the mid-Dec layer and two very large avalanches on the Nov persistent weak layer. Check the Lizard/Flathead bulletin for more info. Until we have more observations from the South Rockies to build our confidence, assume that further deep persistent slab avalanches are possible, especially while experiencing unseasonably warm temperatures.

Snowpack Summary

Record warm temperatures may have resulted in moist snow and an isothermal snowpack at lower elevations on Monday. High freezing levels (above mountain tops) are rapidly settling 10-20 cm of recent snow which overlies a rain crust to 1900m, facets, and/or surface hoar. The mid-December crust/facet layer is down 40-80cm. Tests indicate that this layer is still reactive in some areas. Isolated large avalanches continue to release on this interface. In shallow snowpack areas, the mid-December crust is breaking down through the faceting process. Closer to the ground a crust/facet interface that formed in November is generally dormant but may still be reactive in isolated areas. In some places the basal snowpack consists entirely of sugary facets.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Record warm temperatures and very high freezing levels may result in deep persistent slab avalanches releasing naturally from strong solar radiation or cornice falls, and continuing to be sensitive to human triggers.

Avoid convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack where triggering could be more likely.>Be aware of the potential for full depth avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

2 - 5

Loose Wet

Forecast warm temperatures overnight and the chance for periods of strong solar radiation may result in continued moist or wet loose snow avalanches.

Cornices become weak with heating, so give them a wide berth.>Minimize exposure to sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 4

Valid until: Jan 28th, 2015 2:00PM