Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Light flurries are forecast for the next few days of day of the forecast period, ending late Sunday afternoon.  Strong southwest ridge top winds should become light to moderate by Sunday afternoon. Freezing levels will drop to valley bottom Sunday night, then rise again to1200m on Monday during the day.

In recent days, several natural wind slab avalanches to size 1.5 were observed in high elevation terrain in the Elk Valley North area, as well as east of the divide.  A size 1 persistent slab avalanche was also noted on a steep cut bank below treeline. Although observations were limited at the time of publishing this bulletin, strong winds on Thursday and Friday will likely produce a new round of wind slab activity. In areas where buried persistent weak layers exist, wind-deposited snow will also add to the likelihood and consequences of triggering the overlying slab.

Recent snows form earlier in the week with strong southwest winds  have been redistributed into wind slabs in higher elevation lee terrain. East of Crowsnest Pass new snow will overlie mainly scoured surfaces or hard stubborn wind slabs from last week. In general, the mid and lower snowpack are strong and well-settled in these areas.In areas to the west of the divide you're likely to find a mix of persistent weak crystals around 30cm below the surface. These crystals, which formed at the beginning of January, seem most reactive in open areas below treeline and consist of surface hoar, facets and a hard crust that formed on steep solar aspects. Additional snow load will add to the size and reactivity of this developing persistent slab. About 50cm below the surface you may also find a surface hoar layer which formed in December. Although no avalanches have been reported on this layer, it continues to produce sudden planar results in snowpack tests and may come to life with a large trigger or additional storm loading.