Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Freezing levels are uncertain

Synopsis:  An intense frontal system with subtropical moisture is forecast to arrive on the BC coast in the next 24 hrs.  Warm air preceding the Pacific frontal system has already pushed freezing levels up to 2000 metres in some parts of the forecast area.Tonight: Cloudy with flurries and possible 10 to 20cm of precipitation. Strong SW winds and freezing levels climbing to 1700m.Sunday:  Cloudy, snow flurries mixed with rain at lower elevations, 5 to 10 cm of snow, winds gusting to strong at ridge tops, freezing levels may climb to 2100m.Monday: Mix of sun and clouds, No precipitation in the forecast, light to moderate winds at ridge tops, freezing level drops to around 1500m. Tuesday: Sunny with cloudy periods, no precipitation in the forecast, light winds at ridge top, freezing level down to around 14500m.

As a result of the rain, warm temperatures and additional snow loading from the most recent storm, numerous avalanches up to size 3 have been reported in the past 24 hrs. In some cases failing through the seasons snow pack to ground. There are also numerous reports of skier accidental and skier remote avalanches up to size 2. Many of these failed on the Feb.10 surface hoar / crust/ facet layers. There is ample opportunity now for a rider or skier to trigger an avalanche that might step down to any of the persistent weak layers that now exist in this years snow pack and produce a very large and destructive avalanche..

The recent storm snows are rapidly settling into a slab that now sits above a variety of old surfaces. There are buried facets on north aspects and sun crust on many south facing slopes. Rains up to 1800m have saturated the upper snowpack. At elevations above the freezing level strong SW winds have have formed winds labs in lee features. There are 3 persistent weak layers now buried in the snowpack,  A January 28th layer of surface hoar, facets and crusts, a Feb.10th layer of surface hoar, facets and crusts, and the March 2nd layer of surface hoar, facets and crusts.  All of these layers have been noted in recent avalanche activity.