Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 23rd, 2014 8:06AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Deep Persistent Slabs and Loose Wet.

jlammers, Avalanche Canada

Kootenay Boundary.

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Friday

Weather Forecast

A ridge of high pressure will continue to dominate the region bringing mainly clear skies and dry conditions for the forecast period. Another inversion will set in for all 3 days with above freezing alpine temperatures. Winds should remain mainly light and west/northwesterly.

Avalanche Summary

There have been no new reports of significant avalanche activity although some sluffing continues on steep solar aspects during the warmest parts of the day.

Snowpack Summary

A dusting of snow overlies a variety of surfaces which include hard, stubborn windslabs in exposed upper elevation terrain, a melt freeze crust on steep, sun-exposed slopes, and well developed surface hoar at treeline and below. Ongoing warm daytime temperatures have promoted settlement within the snowpack, while cool nights have allowed for significant surface faceting.Closer to the ground, below a generally strong and well settled mid pack, there are 2 layers of note: the late November surface hoar, and a crust/facet combo which formed in October. Both of these layers represent a low probability-high consequence scenario. That said, warming forecast for the next few days may be what it takes to bring these layers back to life. Other possible triggers include cornice fall or thin spot triggering on an unsupported slope in the alpine or at treeline.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep persistent slabs have become much harder to trigger; however, avalanches on deeply buried weaknesses would be highly destructive. Warming over the next few days may be enough to re-activate these layers.

Watch for clues, like sluffing off of cliffs, that the snowpack is warming up. >Avoid convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.>Be aware of the potential for full depth avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

3 - 5

Loose Wet

Warming throughout the next few days will have a destabilizing effect on the snowpack. Loose wet avalanches will become likely, particularly on steep, sun-exposed slopes.

Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet.>Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.>

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Valid until: Jan 24th, 2014 2:00PM