Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Mar 21st, 2019 4:24PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Loose Wet and Wet Slabs.

swerner, Avalanche Canada

South Coast Inland.

Natural avalanche activity is possible with continued warm temperatures on Friday. Cornices are soft and weak. Avoid travel under, on or anywhere near cornices.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate -

Weather Forecast

The weather pattern begins to change Thursday with increased cloud cover and falling freezing levels overnight. FRIDAY: Cloud with some sun. Freezing levels 2300 m with an alpine high of + 4 degrees. Ridgetop winds moderate from the southwest.SATURDAY: Cloudy with very light rain at lower elevations and light snow in the alpine. Freezing levels falling to 1400 m and alpine temperatures near -1. Ridgetop winds light to moderate from the southwest. SUNDAY: A mix of sun and cloud with freezing levels 1700 m and alpine temperatures near -1. Ridgetop winds light from the southwest.

Avalanche Summary

On Wednesday, natural loose wet avalanche activity continued up to size 3 on SE-SW aspects in the northern parts of the region. In the South, a few natural loose wet avalanches were reported up to size 2 from steep solar aspects. We suspect that natural avalanche activity will slowly decrease as temperatures drop over the weekend.

Snowpack Summary

Snow surfaces are highly variable. On higher North aspects (above 1700 m) you may find some dry, faceted snow. Some of this has been redistributed by southwesterly and northerly winds, potentially creating some unusual wind slabs. On solar aspects (East, South, West) the upper 10-20 cm is moist but re-freezes overnight into a solid crust which breaks down by noon. Most solar slopes at lower elevations are becoming isothermal. The bigger questions are deeper in the snowpack. Down 40-60 cm below the melt-freeze crust on solar aspects and the wintery snow on the polar aspects sits the February facet interface. The warm temperatures will continue to penetrate deeper and destabilize the snowpack. Its hard to say how many hot days and warm nights it will it take to wake up the more deeply buried weak layers, if they even wake up at all?

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose wet activity is expected to continue on all aspects and elevations except north facing, alpine slopes. Cornices are softening up and weak. You don't want to be under or near one of these looming monsters when they fail.

Cornices become weak with daytime heating or solar exposure.Loose avalanches may start small but they can gain mass and push you into dangerous terrain.

Aspects: North East, East, South East, South, South West, West, North West.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2.5

Wet Slabs

As the warming penetrates deeper in the snowpack large wet slabs may fail naturally, especially where buried crust or facet interfaces exist.

A smaller avalanche may step down to a deeper slab resulting in a large avalanche.Avoid exposure to overhead slopes with Glide Cracks. Avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.Avoid slopes when the snow is moist or wet.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1.5 - 2.5

Valid until: Mar 22nd, 2019 2:00PM