Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Monday night: Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries and a trace to 5 cm of new snow. Moderate south winds.Tuesday: Cloudy with flurries bringing 5-10 cm of new snow, continuing overnight. Light southwest winds. Alpine high temperatures around -3 with freezing levels to 1600 metres.Wednesday: A mix of sun and cloud with isolated flurries and a trace of new snow. Variable new snow totals of about 10-25 cm. Light northeast winds. Alpine high temperatures around -5 with freezing levels to 1700 metres.Thursday: Sunny with cloudy periods. Light north winds. Alpine high temperatures around -2 with freezing levels around 1900 metres.

The wet loose avalanche cycle from last Sunday to Friday diminished as cooler, seasonal temperatures returned to the mountains on Saturday. Evidence of the cycle is widespread at all elevations, with recent avalanches up to size 3 found mostly on southeast to southwest aspects. Looking forward, cooling temperatures and inbound snowfall will shift concerns to new snow instabilities over the near term. These are likely to present initially as small new wind slabs forming on lee slopes at higher elevations. The re-emergence of the sun from Wednesday onward will shift us back into a spring pattern of loose wet avalanche concerns increasing with sun and warming each day.

Light new snow amounts are accumulating above a surface of melt-freeze crust in most areas above 1500 metres, with the exception of limited north aspects above 2000 metres, where it may bury settled dry snow. Below about 1500 metres it will land on variably isothermal (slushy) and crusty surfaces. The remainder of the snowpack is generally consolidated and strong. Exceptions may exist on northerly aspects above 2000 m, where a gradually strengthening layer of faceted grains buried 30 to 60 cm deep may still be preserved below an overlying slab of old and hard wind-affected snow.