Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Nov 8th, 2016 4:00PM

The alpine rating is below threshold, the treeline rating is below threshold, and the below treeline rating is below threshold. Known problems include Cornices.

deryl kelly, Parks Canada

Jasper.

Unusual dramatic warming in the region has weakened the new and unsupported cornices. Expect this to be a temporary situation but, best to give a wide berth to avoid exposure.

Summary

Weather Forecast

Road side temperatures reaching +16 (Tuesday) and Alpine temps have remained above 0 for the last 24hrs (since 17:00, Monday Nov. 7th). Anticipating a slow cooling as the week progresses with forecasted precip of 4 to 6mm for Wednesday. Expect this to be rain at lower elevations and snow in the Alpine, maybe... we can only hope!

Snowpack Summary

Wide variations in the snowpack through the forecast area. Snow depths vary based on elevation and aspect. Warm temps have pushed the snow line to above 2100ms. Moist surface snow. Steep solar aspects have little snow left and expecting a temp crust on all elevations and aspects. High freezing levels observed on Nov. 8th (above 3500m's).

Avalanche Summary

Numerous point releases, loose wet, and cornice triggered loose dry (N and E aspects) observed today (Tuesday Nov. 8) through-out the forecast area.

Confidence

Problems

Cornices

New, weak, and unsupported cornices on east and north east aspects failing and scrubbing to ground.

Extra caution needed around cornices with current conditions.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 3

Valid until: Nov 9th, 2016 4:00PM