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Avalanche Forecast

Dec 21st, 2011–Dec 22nd, 2011
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Sea To Sky.

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain on Saturday

Weather Forecast

Thursday: Mostly clear with increasing clouds in the afternoon. Freezing levels as high as 1500m, and moderate southwesterly winds. Friday: up to 15cm of snow with freezing levels around 1000m and strong southwesterly winds. Saturday: Another 20-30cm possible, especially for coastal areas, with freezing levels remaining around 1000m and strong westerly winds.

Avalanche Summary

Recent observations are limited to isolated human-triggered Size 1 fresh wind slabs. One was 20m wide by 20cm deep on a NE facing alpine slope.

Snowpack Summary

Dribs and drabs of new snow with associated winds are keeping wind slabs fresh and poorly bonded to the variable but predominately crusty snow surface from last weekend's warm, wet, and windy weather. Recent compression tests on a wind-loaded treeline slope produced easy to moderate sudden collapse results down 65cm on surface hoar overlying faceted snow. The mid and lower snowpack are generally well settled and strong. Weak facets may be lurking at base of the snowpack in shallow alpine areas, but there have been no recent reports of associated instabilities.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Fresh wind slabs are lurking below ridge crests, behind terrain features and in cross-loaded gullies.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3