Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Jan 15th, 2023 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Storm Slabs and Loose Wet.
bchristie,
Avalanche Canada
Start on small features and gain confidence before moving into bigger terrain. Where the snow is dry, a slab could easily avalanche on a layer of weak, feathery, surface hoar crystals. Where the snow is wet or moist, a small amount of moving, loose snow/slush could gain mass and knock a rider over or carry them down a slope.
Summary
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
On Saturday in the Shames backcountry, pinwheeling of moist snow was reported in steeper terrain, along with signs of recent, wet loose avalanches.
Also, a small, rider triggered avalanche was reported northwest of Terrace. It occurred around treeline, and failed down 30 cm, possibly on a layer of surface hoar that was buried on Dec 9.
Snowpack Summary
Surface snow is expected to be moist or refrozen below 1000m. In terrain sheltered from the wind, 20-40 cm of settling snow overlies a layer of weak, feathery surface hoar crystals buried in early January. Below 1000 m and on slopes facing the sun, this new snow overlies a thin crust.
Weak layers that were reactive over the Christmas and New Year's period have shown signs of bonding and gaining strength. These include a surface hoar layer buried on Dec 28 found 50 to 100 cm deep and a facet layer buried on Dec 23 found 70 to 120 cm deep.
Weather Summary
Sunday Night
Cloudy. 0-5 cm of snow expected. Light southwest winds. Freezing level around 750 m.
Monday
Cloudy. No new snow expected. Light southwest wind, possibly moderate in the alpine in the afternoon. Freezing level around 750 m.
Tuesday
Mostly cloudy. 5-15 cm of snow expected. The bigger numbers are forecasted to be further south, and closer to the coast. Strong south wind. Alpine temperatures around -5°C. Snow/Rain line between 500 and 1000 m.
Wednesday
Mostly cloudy. 5-10 cm of snow expected. Possibly 30-40 cm in areas near Kitimat. Moderate southwest wind. Alpine temperatures around -5°C. Snow/Rain line between 500 and 1000 m.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Carefully assess open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
- The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.
- Loose avalanches may start small but they can grow and push you into dangerous terrain.
Problems
Storm Slabs
It may seem strange to have a storm slab problem when there hasn't been much new snow, but based on some avalanches observed on Saturday in this region and the area around Smithers, previous storm snow may be settling into a more cohesive slab over a layer of weak, feathery surface hoar crystals. The wind did not seem to be a factor in these reported avalanches. This problem may not amount to much, but I'd rather be cautious until the layer is tested with a larger load.
This MIN Report does a great job of explaining how the avalanche problem might present itself.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Loose Wet
After a warm and wet storm, the freezing level has only been falling gradually. The possibility for wet loose avalanches remains where you are finding wet snow that looks and feels like a slurpee, or where moist snow is seen pinwheeling and snowballing down steep slopes.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Jan 16th, 2023 4:00PM
