Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Cariboos.
Above freezing temperatures up high over night and into the day Thursday will continue to stress the snowpack. Consecutive hot days are increasing the likelihood of triggering large avalanches on a crust near the bottom of the snowpack.
Confidence
Low - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.
Weather Forecast
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WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear / Moderate, southwest ridgetop wind / alpine low temperature +4 / Strong temperature inversion with above freezing air 2000-3500 m.
THURSDAY: Sunny / Light, southwest ridgetop wind / alpine high temperature +3 in AM with dropping temps in PM / Strong temperature inversion with above freezing air 2000-3500 m will dissipate in PM.
FRIDAY: Mix of sun and cloud / Light, southwest ridgetop wind / alpine high temperature -4 / Freezing level 1000 m.
SATURDAY: Sunny / Moderate, southwest ridgetop wind / alpine high temperature +5 / Strong temperature inversion returns with above freezing air 2000-3500 m.
Avalanche Summary
Data is very sparse in this region. Please submit your observations to the Mountain Information Network.
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The hot weather up high has the potential to awaken the November crust and make it more sensitive to natural and human triggers which could result in large avalanches.
Snowpack Summary
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A very strong temperature inversion has created moist snow on all aspects at treeline and above on Wednesday. 10 cm of snow on Monday covered a new layer of surface hoar. 50-80 cm. of recent storm snow and moderate to strong southwest winds formed widespread wind slabs over the weekend. These slabs may remain reactive to human triggers in areas where they are sitting on a second layer of small surface hoar down 40-60 cm. There is a crust from early November now down approximately 75-125 cm. This crust has been observed with sugary facets above and below it. It is most likely to be reactive to human triggers on south facing slopes and in shallow, rocky, snowpack areas in the alpine.
Terrain and Travel
- Avoid exposure to overhead hazards when solar radiation is strong.
- Back off slopes as the surface becomes moist or wet with rising temperatures.
- If triggered loose wet avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
- Avoid steep, rocky, and wind effected areas where triggering slabs is more likely.
- Carefully assess open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
Avalanche Problems
Loose Wet
Things are looking HOT up high for the next couple days. Naturally triggered wet loose avalanches are possible on all aspects and especially likely on solar aspects. Overhead hazards will be a primary concern.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely
Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5
Deep Persistent Slabs
The hot weather up high over the next couple days may awaken this layer. Cornice falls, or smaller avalanches are especially likely to trigger a large avalanche on this layer. This layer is most likely to be reactive to human triggers on south facing slopes and in shallow, rocky, snowpack areas in the alpine.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 2 - 3
Wind Slabs
Lingering wind slabs may remain surprisingly reactive to human triggers in areas where they are sitting on top of a layer of small surface hoar.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5