Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the speed, direction, or duration of the wind and its effect on the snowpack. Uncertainty is due to the fact that persistent slabs are particularly difficult to forecast.

Sunday night: Partly cloudy, moderate to strong northwest ridgetop wind, freezing level valley bottom.

Monday: Sunny, light northerly ridgetop wind, freezing level 800 m.

Tuesday: Mix of sun and cloud, southwest ridgetop wind building to strong, freezing level valley bottom.

Wednesday: Mix of sun and cloud, moderate northwest ridgetop wind, freezing level valley bottom.

A couple of natural avalanches since last week's storm are suspected to have run on the surface hoar 20-40 cm down, including a size 2.5 storm slab out of a northwest facing gulley feature around 2000 m near Nelson.

Last week, a widespread natural avalanche cycle up to size 2.5 was reported. A recent MIN report observed from Rossland shows a size 3 natural persistent slab avalanche that occurred during or post-storm.

Over a week ago, a naturally-triggered size 3 deep persistent slab avalanche released on a southeast aspect at 2200 m in the Rossland range. The avalanche likely failed on the weak layers described in the snowpack summary and scrubbed to the ground. 

10-15 cm of new snow sits over extensively wind affected surfaces at upper elevations, a crust below 2000 m and large surface hoar crystals in wind sheltered areas around treeline. The upper snowpack is composed of some elevation-dependent permutation of crust sandwich formed by fluctuating freezing levels during the last storm. 

A layer of surface hoar (and/or another crust) may be found beneath the most recent storm snow in sheltered terrain. A couple of recent avalanches are suspected to have run on this layer and where it has been found in snow profiles, it has been producing moderate to hard planar test results.

An older weak layer is buried 70 to 130 cm deep. It is composed of faceted grains over a crust. This recent MIN report observed from Rossland on Wednesday the 13th shows good evidence of a large natural slab avalanche failing on this layer during or post-storm. This suggests that it remains possible for riders to trigger this layer.

Another layer of faceted grains above a melt-freeze crust that formed in early November is upwards of 200 cm below the surface. This has been the suspected failure layer of a few very large avalanches that released last week in the Rossland range.

• Be carefull around freshly wind loaded features.
• Recent wind has varied in direction so watch for wind slabs on all aspects.
• Carefully assess open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.