Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 10th, 2018 4:00PM

The alpine rating is high, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

max darrah, Parks Canada

Jasper.

http://www.pc.gc.ca/apps/scond/cond_e.asp?oid=30728&opark=100092Large natural avalanches continue to be observed out of solar alpine start zones late in the day. The most significant slide covered the road near the Weeping Wall (Mt Cirrus) on Saturday.

Summary

Weather Forecast

Temperatures remaining cool, but have the potential to reach fluctuate significantly over the course of the day. Minimal snowfall expected, light winds, and clear skies to continue through to midweek.

Snowpack Summary

Varied storm snow amts: 10-15cm in the Icefields, 40cm near Mt Wilson, and 30cm north of Beauty creek is sitting on the weak and facetted persistent slab at mid snowpack. Reverse loading from a northerly flow has cross-loaded Alpine features.

Avalanche Summary

Widespread avalanche cycle throughout the forecasted region with numerous to size 3.5 over the last 3 days from all aspects. All elevations saw significant propagation with debris often reaching valley bottom even from ALP start zones. Several large natural avalanches were observed off Mt Cirrus late in the day on Friday.

Confidence

Problems

Wind Slabs

Up to 45cm of HST fell through the forecast area, over-loading the already weak persistent slab and running far and fast.

Avoid exposure to solar aspects overhead, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.Be aware of the potential for wide propagations.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2.5

Persistent Slabs

Persistent slabs remain a problem. The main concern is for areas exposed to large triggers such as cornices and large South facing alpine terrain exposed to afternoon sun.

If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.Avoid exposure to solar aspects overhead, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

2 - 3.5

Valid until: Feb 11th, 2018 4:00PM