Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 11th, 2012 9:39AM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Cornices.

jlammers, Avalanche Canada

Cariboos.

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain on Saturday

Weather Forecast

Thursday: Mostly clear skies / Light/northwest winds / -12.0 @ 1500mFriday: Mostly clear skies in the morning with increasing cloud in the afternoon and trace amounts of snow / Light southwest winds / -8.0 @ 1500mSaturday: Light to moderate snowfall / Moderate southwest winds / Freezing level rising to 850m

Avalanche Summary

A few size 1.5-2 windslab avalanches occurring in the alpine. Some failing with cornice fall.

Snowpack Summary

2 days ago very strong southwest winds transported the storm snow into windslabs in the alpine and at treeline. There is a new rain crust below 1500 metres and an old rain crust that is buried down about a metre below the 1600 metre elevation. The mid-pack is reported to be strong, and I have not heard anyone talk about early season layers deep in the snowpack. That being said, there is still a lot of variation due to the strong winds that have accompanied most storms this winter in the region. I would continue to be suspect of thin snowpack areas.

Problems

Wind Slabs

The recent storm snow has been transported into windslabs by strong southwest winds. The slab will have strengthened somewhat; however, triggering is still quite possible.

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

2 - 5

Cornices

Warm temperatures and strong winds have caused rapid cornice growth which may not be well supported. Try to reduce your exposure beneath these large unstable masses of heavy snow.

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

3 - 5

Valid until: Jan 12th, 2012 8:00AM