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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 12th, 2014–Feb 13th, 2014
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Cariboos.

Snowfall amounts vary widely over the forecast area. Hazard may change dependent on the amount of new snow. More snow than forecast may push the hazard rating higher than the forecast

Confidence

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Weather Forecast

A series of Pacific low pressure systems will bring snow to the forecast area for the next 7 to 10 days. Forecast models vary on amounts and some parts of the area may see larger amounts of precipitation.Wednesday night: Freezing Level: 900m; Trace of precipitation as the front moves to the east, winds moderate to strong from the south west at ridge top.Thursday: Freezing level: 1000m; Another system moves through the interior on Thursday bringing light to locally moderate amounts of precipitation. A minor clearing will occur on Thursday night before the next storm system. Winds from the south west and moderate to strong at ridge top.Friday: Freezing level: 1000m; Yet another wave will bring more snow to the region, with continuing moderate to strong winds at ridge top.Saturday:  Freezing level around 900m;  A bit of a break in the weather on Saturday.  Flurries with a trace of precipitation, light winds at ridge top.

Avalanche Summary

Reports of natural avalanches up to size 2 running in the new snow on top of the old weak surfaces.  Wind affected areas may produce larger avalanches.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 40 cm of storm snow is now sitting on a variety of old surfaces that include multiple layers of surface hoar, facetted snow from the past few weeks of cold clear weather, with some old sun crust on steep south facing slopes. Moderate temperatures in the forecast should help with bonding, but redistribution by strong ridge top winds will create wind slabs on lee slopes. These wind slabs will be a prime cause for concern for the near future. In some parts of the forecast area there exists areas of shallow snowpack that should be regarded as potential locations to trigger large destructive avalanches.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Considerable storm snow has fallen throughout the forecast area. Strong winds have produced wind slabs at tree line and above. Numerous size 2 natural avalanches have been reported. Careful route selection is necessary for safe back country riding!
If you are increasing your exposure to avalanche terrain, do it gradually as you gather information.>Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4