Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

A weak upper low moves into the region Monday displacing the ridge that was in place over the weekend. With the ridge collapsed, the door is open to a series of fast moving storms interspersed by the odd ridge. SUNDAY NIGHT: Freezing level around 1600 m, 5 to 10 cm of snow above 1500 m, rain below, moderate to strong southwest wind. MONDAY: Freezing level around 1600 m, 1 to 5 cm of snow, light to moderate southwest wind. TUESDAY: Freezing level starting near valley bottom rising to about 1600 m, light to moderate northwest winds, no significant precipitation. WEDNESDAY: Freezing level starting near valley bottom rising to about 1500 m, 1 to 5 cm of snow possible, moderate southwest wind.

On Saturday a wind event triggered a size 3 avalanche that started near 2300 m, failing on a steep un-skiable east facing piece of terrain. Over the last week we have received 5 reports of very large (size 3) avalanches on north, east and south aspects between 1700 and 2400 m. Some have failed after being hit with a large chunk of falling cornice, others have released without a large trigger.

Large cornices loom over many ridge lines and many are teetering on the brink of failure. Old wind slabs may remain a problem on high elevation north facing features. The make up of the late February persistent weak layer is an aspect dependant mix of surface hoar, facets and/or a thick crust down around 70 to 100 cm below the snow surface. Large triggers like natural cornice fall and explosive control work continue to initiate avalanches failing on this interface. The recent warm to cool temperatures should give the overlying slab a bit of strength, but it has yet to prove itself trustworthy. Unfortunately there's not much of a reliable pattern telling us what exact aspects are most suspect. As a precautionary measure, we recommend remaining suspicious of steep unsupported features at and above treeline.