Avalanche Forecast

Good

Tonight: Moderate snowfall - 10-15cm. The freezing level (FL) should be at valley bottom. Winds shift to moderate from the NW. Saturday: Unsettled conditions with up to 10cm of snow. FL at valley bottom. Winds are moderate from the NW. Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud. FL at valley bottom and winds ease to light from the NW. Monday: A mix of sun and cloud. FL at valley bottom.

A natural avalanche cycle occurred on Wednesday and Thursday in most areas. Slab avalanches were reported up to Size 3 on all aspects and at all elevations. There were also several recent reports of skier triggered avalanches and remotely triggered avalanches up to Size 2.0, and a Size 2 snowmobile triggered avalanche near Blue River. The potential for triggering large avalanches will remain high throughout the forecast period.

Strong and variable winds have created deep and weak wind slabs on a variety of aspects at all elevations. 40-90cm of storm snow has now settled into a cohesive slab and overlies the Feb. 9 weakness, which includes surface hoar and/or a crust. This surface hoar layer may be widespread in some areas, while others have reported it being confined to shady aspects at treeline and in the alpine. A melt-freeze crust can be found down 60-90cm on solar aspects at all elevations, and on all aspects below about 1600 meters. In some areas this melt-freeze crust has facets above or below it. Snowpack tests on these layers have generally given easy to moderate "pops or drops" results. There is potential for easy triggering and very wide propagation. There is some concern that large loads like cornices may trigger the Jan. 20th facet layer. Some shallow snowpack areas may continue to have a weak layer of basal facets near the ground.