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Avalanche Forecast

Feb 9th, 2014–Feb 10th, 2014
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Sea To Sky.

You may be powder-starved, but mother nature is calling the shots with touchy, high consequence conditions expected for the forecast period. Conservative terrain selection will become critical.

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Monday

Weather Forecast

The ridge of high pressure and the associated cold arctic air is on its way out giving way to a more zonal pattern. A series of punchy systems will impact the Coast for the forecast period.Monday: Snowfall becoming heavy throughout the day with southern areas seeing the highest accumulations / Strong southwest winds / Freezing level at 800mTuesday: Heavy snowfall / Strong southwest winds / Freezing level at 1000mWednesday: Heavy snowfall / Strong southwest winds / Freezing level at 1500m

Avalanche Summary

A few size 1 wind slabs were observed in exposed alpine terrain on Saturday. I would expect touchy storm slab conditions with forecast weather over the next few days.

Snowpack Summary

Current snow surfaces include surface facets, patchy surface hoar, thin wind slabs, scoured crust, or any combination thereof. Recent cold temperatures have also continued to facet shallow snowpack areas, including rocky or shallow bed surfaces left exposed by the last avalanche cycle. Once buried by the forecast storm snow, facets sitting on a hard surface or at ground level will most likely be the interface to watch.The mid snowpack is generally strong and well-settled; although basal facets remain on the radar as a low probability/ high consequence problem for some operators.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

The avalanche danger will rise as Monday's storm intensifies with punchy storm slab development. Due to freshly buried weak layers, touchy conditions may persist for a while. Watch for increased triggering in wind-affected terrain.
Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>Choose conservative lines and watch for clues of instability.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4