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Avalanche Forecast

Feb 7th, 2013–Feb 8th, 2013
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Sea To Sky.

The SOUTH end of the region has significantly more new snow and will take more time to stabilize. Be aware that the sun's rays can have a de-stabilizing effect on the new snow. Be cautious if the sun burns off the high clouds.

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

Friday: Expect mostly sunny skies, with a chance of high, thin cloud. Winds should be light from the north and alpine temperatures should reach -4.Saturday & Sunday: Expect the ridge to settle in. Sunny skies, light northerly winds and alpine temperatures reaching -1 each afternoon.

Avalanche Summary

We have reports of natural, explosive and rider triggered windslabs up to size 2.5 failing on northwest through east facing terrain. These are failing predominantly at treeline and in the alpine. Remote and accidental triggering have been observed. The south end of the region has seen the larger releases with wider propagation; at times linking terrain around ridge features. These areas have also seen storm slab events on open, convex features below treeline.

Snowpack Summary

A final pulse of new snow has fallen bringing storm totals to between 30cm (north end of the region) and 90cm (south end of the region). Consistent southerly winds during the storm period has built windslabs in lee terrain. Warm temperatures have consolidated storm slabs on open convex features where the new snow is deepest. Newly buried surfaces include old windslabs, temperature and sun crusts. The new snow is bonding reasonably well at this interface in most locations with the highest concern being the bond to crusts on south and west facing terrain. The January 23rd interface (crusts, facets and surface hoar crystals) lingers in isolated locations. This layer seems to be rounding and bonding under current conditions, but we have reports of a recent size 2.0 releasing on this layer at the north end of the region. The mid pack is generally well settled with the average snowpack depth at treeline around 180 cm.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Windslabs have formed at treeline and in the alpine due to consistent southwesterly winds. The new snow is showing poor bonding with crusts present on many slopes. In the south end of the region, cohesive storm slabs are reactive on convex slopes.
The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.>Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Cornices

Cornices have grown significantly with the recent storm.
Extra caution needed around cornices with current conditions.>

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 6