Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Mar 4th, 2022 4:00PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Persistent Slabs, Wind Slabs and Loose Wet.

Avalanche Canada rbuhler, Avalanche Canada

Email

A weak crust/facet layer is creating a persistent slab problem in the neighbouring Sea to Sky region which has resulted in numerous recent avalanches. Conditions are expected to be similar for the north of the Inland region. Check out the new forecaster blog for more details.

Summary

Confidence

Low - Uncertainty is due to how buried persistent weak layers will react with the forecast incoming weather. Uncertainty is due to the speed, direction, or duration of the wind and its effect on the snowpack. Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

Weather Forecast

A ridge of high pressure brings dry and sunny conditions for the weekend. 

Friday Night: Mainly clear, light to moderate N wind, freezing levels near valley bottom.

Saturday: Sunny, light to moderate N wind, freezing levels reaching around 1500 m.

Sunday: Mainly sunny, moderate N wind, freezing levels potentially reaching as high as 2000 m in the late afternoon.

Monday: Mainly cloudy, moderate to strong NW wind, freezing levels 1200-1500 m.

Avalanche Summary

On Thursday, some natural wet slabs up to size 1.5 were reported in the north of the region as well as several natural wind slabs. Natural loose avalanches were also observed on steep sun-exposed slopes. In the Coquihalla, a few glide slab avalanches were observed. 

In the neighbouring Sea to Sky region, numerous natural and human-triggered persistent avalanches have been observed over the past few days. The snowpack structure is expected to be similar in the north of the region and persistent slab problem should be expected until proven otherwise.

On Wednesday, numerous storm slab and loose wet avalanches up to size 2 were reported. Treeline and below treeline terrain saw wet loose avalanches up to size 2 as well. In the neighboring Sea to Sky region, a few skier controlled and remotely triggered (from as far away as 40 m) avalanches were also reported. These persistent slabs failed on the mid-February facet/ crust interface buried approximately 50 cm down. They caught people by surprise, but no involvements were associated.

Snowpack Summary

Anywhere from 40 cm to 60 cm of recent storm snow has accumulated in the North (Pemberton area) and up to 80 cm in the South (Coquihalla) over a variety of surfaces that were buried mid-February. These old interfaces include surface hoar and/or facets in shady, wind-sheltered areas, sun crust on solar aspects. Generally, the storm snow seems to be settling quickly. The snow was moist/wet and rain-soaked at lower elevations, especially in the southern half of the province, which has most likely resulted in the formation of a new surface crust.

In the neighboring Sea to Sky region on northerly slopes (NW, N, NE, E) at treeline/ low alpine elevations (1600-2000 m) the mid-February facet/ crust persistent weak layer has been touchy to skier triggers, showing signs of whumphing and remotely-triggered avalanches. Reports indicate that areas that have a 3-5 cm thick layer of facets sitting on a hard melt-freeze crust are most concerning. There is no direct evidence of this persistent slab problem in the South Coast Inland region but it may be developing and should be on your radar because the snowpack structure is similar, especially in the north of the region.

Another crust/facet layer from late-January is buried down 40-120 cm and has shown no results in recent snowpack tests and is dormant at this time.

Terrain and Travel

  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried persistent weak layers.
  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.
  • Minimize exposure to sun-exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

An icon showing Persistent Slabs

In the adjacent Sea to Sky forecast region, a persistent weak layer of facets on a crust exists 30-70 cm below the surface and has been touchy to human triggers, especially on north aspects around treeline (1600-2000 m). 

There has been no direct reactivity reported in the South Coast Inland region. However, the snowpack structure is similar in the north of the region and it should be on your radar.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1.5 - 2.5

Wind Slabs

An icon showing Wind Slabs

Watch for new wind slab formation on Saturday. Periods of moderate wind from the north may be enough to develop reactive new slabs in exposed terrain at higher elevations. 

Lingering cornices may become weak during the heat of the afternoon. Cornices are most likely on north and east aspects in the alpine. 

Aspects: East, South East, South, South West, West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Loose Wet

An icon showing Loose Wet

With each subsequent day of melt-freeze conditions, loose wet avalanches will become less likely. However, extra caution is still recommended on steep sun-exposed slopes during the heat of the afternoon. Where the crust is breaking down or non-existent, loose wet avalanches will be more likely. 

Aspects: East, South East, South, South West, West.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Mar 5th, 2022 4:00PM