Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 10th, 2021 1:00AM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Persistent Slabs, Wind Slabs and Loose Dry.

Jesse Percival, VIAC

Vancouver Island.

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Summary

Past Weather

Cool temperatures and moderate to strong North winds have been transporting limited amounts of available snow . Cool temperatures and clear skies are promoting the formation of surface hoar and it is present in isolated areas sheltered and protected from both the sun and wind.

Weather Forecast

A stationary and strengthening high pressure to the east of the region will continue to draw artic air into the forecast area. Expect cool temperatures to persist and moderate to strong Northern outflow winds to continue throughout this forecast period. Some localized flurries are expected with amounts under 5cm. On the western front ranges, expect freezing levels to reach 750 meters during daytime warming. **Wednesday:** 1 to 5 cm, Winds Light to Moderate from the North East, Freezing levels at sea level with a day time a high of 500 meters.**Thursday:** No new precipitation, Winds Light to Moderate from the North East, Freezing levels at sea level with a day time a high of 500 meters.**Friday:** No new precipitation, Winds Moderate to Strong from the North East, Freezing levels at sea level with a day time a high of 500 meters.

Terrain Advice

Avoid convex roll features.Seek terrain that is well supported.Avoid travel on South aspect terrain during the period of warming and direct sun exposure.Caution when transitioning from areas scoured by the wind into areas with recent wind loading.

Snowpack Summary

The Jan 23, 2021 Persistent weak layer can be found between 60 and 100 cm deep and has been reactive to extensive testing. Moderate compression testing produces sudden planar results. This problem is still present and will continue to linger, it should be monitored and observed prior to committing to entering avalanche terrain. Currently a well bonded layer dense snow is â€œbridging the upper snowpackâ€ and protecting this layer from triggering in all but thin areas and unsupported features. Expect this to begin to strengthen with the coming cool weather. Available low density snow has been observed being transported by the north wind and small wind slabs are present on southerly terrain, expect as the scale of terrain increases that these winds slab will be exponentially bigger. Surface hoar is forming and can now be found in isolated areas protected from the wind and sun. Take time to observe and report its location as it will provide helpful information in strengthening and maintaining your mental model as future snow storms are likely to eventually bury it.

Snowpack Details

Surface: A variety of surfaces, new low density snow, wind scoured at upper ridge tops and wind loaded on southerly aspects. Surface hoar is forming on isolated terrain sheltered from the wind and sun.
Upper: A dense and strong layer of well bonded and settled snow.
Mid: An eroding crust with facets at its base ( JAN 21 PWL)
Lower: Well settled.

Confidence

High -

Problems

Persistent Slabs

This problem has now become stubborn to triggering. **Location:** This problem is widespread, however isolated areas such as convex rolls and unsupported terrain is where it is most concerning. **Possibility:** Triggering of this avalanche problem from light loads such as skiers are unlikely. Natural avalanches are very unlikely. **Size:** If triggered, expect these avalanches to be large size 2 and will be big enough to bury, injure or kill a mountain traveler.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 1

Wind Slabs

This problem may be small but in isolated terrain with larger adjacent areas of fetch it is likely to be problematic. Past and continued North winds have and will transport available snow. Expect this problem to become larger in terms of destructive size as winds continue. **Location:** Specific to South aspects in areas lee of ridgetops. **Possibility:** Triggering of this avalanche problem from light loads such as skiers are possible. Natural avalanches are unlikely. **Size:** If triggered, expect these avalanches to be small size 1 but in large terrain with available fetch zones to be large up to size 2.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 1

Loose Dry

This problem is solar induced and is most likely to occur during daytime warming. Many of these avalanche paths have already had a chance to run during the past 4 days, however on western front ranges, a forecast higher freezing level and continued sunshine may cause further loose dry avalanches to occur. **Location:** Specific to Solar aspect terrain where loose and dry unconsolidated snow exists. **Possibility:** Triggering of this avalanche problem from light loads such as skiers are possible. Natural avalanches are unlikely. **Size:** If triggered, expect these avalanches to be small size 1 but could gain mass and push a traveler into a terrain trap.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 1

Valid until: Feb 11th, 2021 1:00AM