Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Synopsis: The ridge of high pressure begins to break down with incoming Pacific frontal systems.Tonight: Clear periods, no precipitation in the forecast,  freezing level around 600 metres, ridge top winds light from the south west, occasionally gusting to strong.Friday: Cloudy, 5 to 10cm of precipitation, freezing level around 1400 metres, winds from the southwest , light to moderate, occasionally gusting to strong.Saturday: Cloudy with a trace of precipitation, freezing level around 1500 metres, ridge top winds moderate to strong from the south west.Sunday:  Cloudy, light to locally moderate precipitation, ( 5 to 15cm)  freezing level may climb to 1600 metres.

We've received reports of large ( size 2 and 3 ) natural avalanches in the region. Cornice failures and resulting large avalanches are being reported in the Kootenay-Boundary region and in the neighboring areas as well. Careful attention to daytime warming and aspect will be necessary to ride safely in the back country.

Warm temperatures have promoted rapid settlement of the recent storm snow into a dense slab that sits above a variety of old surfaces. Overnight freezing will help seal up the surface from the weak layers buried below, at least until warm daytime temperatures break down the surface crust, then all bets are off ! Rain up to 1900m has saturated the upper snowpack in some parts of the forecast area and will crust-over as the freezing level lowers at night. At elevations above the freezing level strong SW winds have have formed significant winds slabs in lee features adding load to the storm slab overlying a variety of persistent weak layers.3 persistent weak layers are buried in the snowpack, A January 28th layer of surface hoar, facets and crusts, a Feb.10th layer of surface hoar, facets and crusts now almost 200cm down,... and the March 2nd layer of surface hoar, facets and crusts at approximately 120cm from the surface.. Of these layers, the Feb. 10th/Jan. 28th layers still appear to be problematic with field reports indicating easy and sudden planar shears on this layer, especially on north aspects. Some parts of the forecast region recently received 5cm of new snow.