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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 14th, 2016–Jan 15th, 2016
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Kootenay Boundary.

Tricky conditions are expected and conservative route selection is critical.

Confidence

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Saturday

Weather Forecast

Friday: A mix of sun and cloud, but dry, with freezing levels in valley bottoms and light southwesterly winds. Saturday: Increasing cloud and wind throughout the day with light snow and strong southwesterly winds in the afternoon. Freezing levels remaining in valley bottoms. Sunday: Mainly cloudy with 10-15cm of snow, strong southwesterly winds and freezing levels in valley bottoms.

Avalanche Summary

Reports from Wednesday include numerous explosive and skier controlled 20-50cm storm slab avalanches, which tended to be more touchy on southern aspects due to sun crust bed surface and more pronounced slab formation.

Snowpack Summary

Weaknesses exist within the 30-40cm of recent storm snow (or possibly up to 50cm in some areas), which is also bonding poorly to buried surface hoar sitting on sun crust on south aspects or facets in shaded areas. Wind and warm temperatures have promoted slab development in many areas, however in some sheltered areas there may still be insufficient storm snow settlement and cohesion for storm slab conditions. About 70-90 cm below the surface, you might find a rain crust from mid-December which co-exists with facets in some areas. Recent snowpack tests suggest that it could still be capable of producing human triggered avalanches. The snowpack below this layer is generally strong and well-settled.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Especially touchy on wind-loaded slopes where slabs are more cohesive, south aspects where buried surface hoar sits on a sun crust, and at lower elevations where warming has promoted slab development and surface hoar is more pronounced.
Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>Be alert to conditions that change with elevation.>Choose well supported terrain without convexities.>Avoid open slopes and convex rolls at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved. Caution in cutblocks.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3