Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain for the entire period

TUESDAY: Freezing level at 1000m with an above freezing layer between 2000 & 2500m.  Ridge top winds moderate west.  Scattered cloud.  No precip.WEDNESDAY: Freezing level should stick around 700m all day. Ridge top winds moderate SW. Light snow begins around lunchtime, I expect 5 – 10cm by sundown.  THURSDAY: Freezing level starts around 500m, raises to 1000m by sundown.  5 – 10 cm of snowfall expected Thursday. Ridge top winds mod – strong NW.

Activity on Sunday was limited to small loose wet avalanches on southerly facing slopes receiving direct sun.  On Saturday a size 2 avalanche was spotted that was suspected to be sled triggered.  It was just below ridge top on an east aspect at 2200m. The observer guessed the crown was aprox. 80 cm deep. On Friday a group of skiers triggered a small (size 1.5) hard slab avalanche the failed when the 3rd skier traversed across an east facing slope at 2000m.

Savage winds out of the NW have wreaked havoc on the region. N & W facing slopes are wind pressed or wind-stripped. Slopes lee to these winds were left with wind slabs up to a meter in depth in open areas. While the results of the recent winds appear dramatic, the wind slabs are quite stubborn in their trigger-ability for the most part.  There are of course, exceptions, see the recent avalanche observations. Warm temperatures have created moist snow that can be found on almost all aspects up to 2300m. Protected areas are growing surface hoar to 20mm, while many other slopes are sporting a zipper crust due to the warm temps. Under the snow surface lies the January 4th interface, down around 75 cm & obviously much deeper in wind loaded areas. This layer of small/facets/crusts and intermittent surface hoar is producing planar shears in some drainages and no failure at all in others. At the moment it's tough to find soft snow to recreate in. The midpack is well good, nicely bonded and strong.