Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Dec 9th, 2014 4:00PM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

max darrah, Parks Canada

Jasper.

We are tracking an incoming storm and there is a high degree of variability in the modeling of snowfall amounts and wind. The hazard will increase rapidly if we receive strong Westerly winds and heavy snowfall.

Summary

Weather Forecast

Temperatures are cooling but will remain mild. Freezing levels dropping back down to below 1700m. Forecasted snowfall amounts are decreasing, but we still expect 15-30cm by the end of the week in the Columbia Icefields area, with the heaviest precipitation arriving later in the week. Moderate to strong Southwest winds expected with the snowfall.

Snowpack Summary

Midpack is gaining strength with recent mild temperatures. Bonding with the November crusts near the bottom of the snowpack appears to be improving. New windslabs are forming in specific lee and cross loaded terrain with recent steady SW winds. Whumphing is less dramatic and more localized than the previous week.

Avalanche Summary

Dec 9 - Numerous loose dry slides to size 1.5 on steep solar aspects at treeline elevation (2100m) and up to 2400m. Several thin, soft windslabs to sz 1.5 slid naturally in cross loaded features near ridgetops on Medicine slab. One skier accidental wind slab was reported from Hilda Peak - 30cm deep, 40m wide, running 15m - 2400m, South East aspect.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Problems

Wind Slabs

Recent wind loading has produced new touchy wind slabs on lee and cross loaded features in exposed areas. Some new natural avalanche activity, one skier accidental, and sudden planar compression tests were all observed today.

Use caution in lee areas. Recent wind loading have created wind slabs.Be careful with wind loaded pockets while approaching and climbing ice routes.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

Storm snow has evolved into a persistent slab mainly around treeline and sheltered alpine slopes.

Assess start zones carefully and use safe travel techniques.Carefully evaluate and use caution around thin snowpack areas.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Dec 10th, 2014 4:00PM