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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 1st, 2016–Mar 2nd, 2016
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Jasper.

The Jan 28 surface hoar and facet layer down 50-80cm is sporadically distributed and difficult to predict. This condition will persist.

Weather Forecast

Tuesday night may bring 5-10cm of new snow and light South winds. Wednesday-Thursday will be -2 to -10, light flurries, and 1400-1700m freezing level. Thursday-Friday will warm up with increasingly strong Westerly winds. 

Snowpack Summary

Weak crust on S through W aspects. Dry, facetted and generally unsupportive facets below this crust. Wind slab on lee aspects from previous SW winds and persistent slab in open areas at tree line. Poor travel conditions below tree line due to weak facetted snowpack. The Jan 28 SH/FC layer down 80cm remains a concern but is sporadically distributed.

Avalanche Summary

On Sunday, a size 3 avalanche was triggered by a skier on a SW facing alpine slope at 2300m about 5km up Portal Creek off Pevril peak. The sliding layer was a 2cm thick layer of facets/decomposed surface hoar buried 80cm. It was 150m wide x 50cm deep (max 1.3m) x 600m long. Likely triggered in shallow spot and stepped down to ground a couple spots.

Confidence

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent weak layers of decomposed surface hoar, facets, and depth hoar are in many locations. These layers have been stubborn to trigger underfoot but could be triggered by cornice failure or from shallow spot and release to ground.
Carefully evaluate terrain features by digging and testing on adjacent, safe slopes. Avoid steep slopes below cornices.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Wind Slabs

Expect slab development immediate to lee ridge lines and cross loaded features. Bonding should be suspect, progress cautiously into steeper terrain.
Carefully evaluate terrain features by digging and testing on adjacent, safe slopes. Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2