Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 24th, 2015 4:27PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Loose Wet, Storm Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

mike eder, Parks Canada

Jasper.

Stay on mild terrain and avoid lee aspects and terrain features at treeline. Periodic closures on Hwy 93 in the Icefields area will take place between 1000 hrs and 1500 hrs for up to 2 hours. Please adjust your travel plans accordingly.

Summary

Weather Forecast

Forecast models have reduced the amount of precipitation that is expected on Sunday and for the remainder of the storm. However the freezing level will rise as high as 1800m through the night as the next pulse comes through. This equates to some heavy snow that will deposit around treeline. Expect steady, Strong SW winds in the alpine.

Snowpack Summary

Below 2000ms will see an infusion of rain and/or wet snow. With a highly variable snowpack in the region, expect this to overload lingering instabilities like the Dec 20 interface, down 15 to 40cm. Scoured open slopes in the alpine will likely stay scoured as these systems move through. Sheltered areas may see up to 20cm accumulation.

Avalanche Summary

A size 2.5 slab avalanche occurred today in the Parker ridge area by a skier.Â This happened on a NE aspect at treeline. Below treeline, there were numerous size 0.5 to 1 loose snow avalanches going to ground as a result of the overnight rainfall. Many of these locations had less than 20cm of snow on the slope.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Monday

Problems

Loose Wet

Steep and shallow areas below TL will likely get saturated and lose support underfoot. Avoid consequential areas where heavy wet slides may push you over or into terrain traps. Low elevation ice climbs will be prone to wet sluffs and wet climbing.

Avoid ice climbs that are in terrain traps below large start zones.Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Storm Slabs

Strong SW winds continue to scour open slopes and redistribute that snow into wind slabs on lee aspects and cross loaded features. This extra load combined with a skier could be sufficient to initiate an avalanche

If you are increasing your exposure to avalanche terrain, do it gradually as you gather information.Be careful with wind loaded pockets while approaching and climbing ice routes.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

The weak layer of surface hoar and facets from December can still be found and may become susceptible to triggering with new snow load. A skier accidental size 2.5 occurred starting from low angle terrain (27 degrees) on a NE aspect at treeline.

Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Valid until: Jan 25th, 2015 4:00PM