Avalanche Forecast

Low - Due to the number of field observations

The next storm will bring snow and wind to the Cariboos late Wednesday into Thursday. Another system is expected Friday night. Each storm will bring a slightly warmer air mass driving the freezing level up the mountainside.WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Freezing level at valley bottom, strong to extreme (65 to 90 km/h) wind at treeline, winds in excess of 110 km/h in the alpine, 5 to 10 cm of snow.THURSDAY: Broken cloud cover, freezing level beginning at valley bottom rising to 1000 m, extreme southwest wind at treeline, extreme+ southwest wind in the alpine, 1 to 5 cm of snow.FRIDAY: Overcast giving way to scattered cloud in the afternoon, freezing level beginning around 1800 m potentially rising has high as 2100 m, extreme south wind at treeline, extreme+ southwest wind in the alpine, trace of precipitation. 3 to 6 cm of snow/rain at lower elevations on Friday night.SATURDAY: Broken cloud cover giving way to a few clouds near lunch, freezing level beginning around 1500 lowering to about 1000 m, at treeline expect moderate southwest wind initially, slowing to light wind near sundown, strong southwest wind in the alpine all day, trace of precipitation.

Observations are currently quite limited, but on Wednesday size 2 avalanches were triggered form a distance (remote triggering). Significant whumphing was also reported which indicates instability in buried weak layers.

The region picked up 20 to 50 cm of new snow with moderate to strong southwest wind Tuesday into Wednesday. Up to 70 cm of snow rests on a buried weak layer (December 10th) that consists of facets, surface hoar, and a crust on solar aspects. This interface was very touchy on Wednesday. A buried weak layer from mid November is now 80 to 120 cm below the surface, it consists of a sun crust on steep south facing slopes and/or weak surface hoar crystals on more shaded and sheltered slopes. While not recently reactive, this storm could push it to the breaking point. The most likely place to see an avalanche failing on this interface would be on south aspects at treeline where the surface hoar formed above a sun crust.At the base of the snowpack is a crust that formed in late October. The probability of triggering this layer is low, but the most suspect areas would be large, steep, rocky alpine features with a shallow snowpack. It would likely take a large trigger such as a cornice fall to produce an avalanche on this layer.