Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 15th, 2019–Dec 16th, 2019

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Cariboos.

20 - 30 cm of recent storm snow sits on a weak layer which teeters on the brink of becoming a touchy storm slab problem.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to field data and reports showing a wide variation in conditions throughout the region.

Weather Forecast

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with clear periods, light to moderate northwest wind, alpine high temperature -10 C.

MONDAY: Flurries, accumulation 5-10 cm, moderate southwest wind, alpine high temperature -9 C.

TUESDAY: Flurries, accumulation 5-15 cm, moderate southwest wind, alpine high temperature -4 C.

WEDNESDAY: Scattered flurries, moderate south wind, alpine high temperature -5 C.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche activity to report from Friday and Saturday.

Reports from Thursday included sloughing and loose dry size 1 avalanches in the storm snow, as well as a persistent slab avalanche triggered remotely by a helicopter. It is important to keep in mind the potential for large, persistent slab avalanches.

Snowpack Summary

15-30 cm of new snow has covered a layer of feathery surface hoar crystals that were observed at all elevations throughout the region. The new snow can be expected to gain cohesion and slowly settle into a slab especially at treeline and below.

The primary layers of concern at this time are a couple of weak layers in the mid snowpack, formed in late November and early December which can be found most notably at treeline, and may present as surface hoar, a c rust, facets or a combination, depending on elevation and aspect.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

20 to 30 cm of recent storm snow rests on a widespread layer of large surface hoar. The storm snow is teetering on the edge of becoming a potentially touchy slab problem, but it hasn't happened yet. Places where thicker snow deposits exist on top of this layer due to wind loading, may be likeliest areas to trigger.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

A couple of weak layers formed in late November and early December are now sitting about 1 m below the surface.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3