Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Feb 18th, 2021 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Persistent Slabs and Wind Slabs.
ldreier,
Avalanche Canada
Don't let your guard down just yet! Slabs on the late January persistent weak layer continue to be easily triggered by skiers and riders. Recently reported avalanches reach up to size 2.5 and are definitely large enough to bury, injure or kill a person.
Summary
Confidence
Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength.
Weather Forecast
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy, 5-10 cm new snow, moderate southwest wind, temperature low -12 C.
FRIDAY: Cloudy, up to 5 cm new snow, moderate southwest wind, temperature high -7 C.
SATURDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, trace of new snow, light to moderate southwest wind, temperature high -5 C.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy, 10-15 cm new snow, moderate southwest wind, temperature high -2 C, freezing level rising to 1500 m.
Avalanche Summary
More reports of easily triggered persistent slab avalanches came in on Wednesday, including these large avalanches at treeline on Mt. Fernie. These new reports highlight the persistent slab problem has not gone away yet. There were also several small loose dry avalanches which were triggered by skiers.Â
On Tuesday, a natural cornice failure triggered a small avalanche on the slope below in the alpine.Â
On Monday, skiers triggered size 1 avalanches at treeline and in the alpine on northeast aspects. One avalanche was triggered from a short distance away (see this MIN report). On Sunday skiers triggered avalanches up to size 2.5 on open features at the treeline/alpine interface in the Lizard Range and Tunnel Creek. These failed on the late January persistent surface hoar layer (see this MIN as an example).Â
On Thursday and Friday there were human and remote triggered avalanches up to size 2 reported. Locations like Mount Fernie, 2000, Liverwurst and McDermid were a few location examples. Some avalanches were triggered from a distance away.Â
Snowpack Summary
Surface faceting and surface hoar growth continues with clear nights and cold temperatures. Below 1600 m a hard melt-freeze crust is underneath 20-40 cm of recent snow.Â
A persistent weak layer lurks 40-70 cm below the surface. In some places it consists of surface hoar, in other places just facets, or crust/facet combinations. This weak interface has been responsible for the majority of recent avalanches.Â
A solid mid-pack sits above a deeply buried crust and facet layers near the bottom of the snowpack (150-200 cm deep), which is currently unreactive.Â
Terrain and Travel
- The trees are not the safe-haven they normally are at this time. Terrain at treeline is primed for human triggered avalanches.
- Carefully assess open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
- Watch for signs of instability like whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.
- Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
Problems
Persistent Slabs
This layer continues to be easily triggered by skiers and riders. Small terrain features are producing small avalanche results, bigger features produce larger more dangerous avalanches. 40-65 cm of snow sits above a buried weak layer consisting of surface hoar, facets, and a crust (depending on elevation and aspect).
The surface hoar interface is the biggest repeat offender, and things have been most reactive on northerly and easterly aspects at treeline and the treeline/alpine interface, but don't let your guard down elsewhere! These kinds of avalanches can happen in surprisingly mellow terrain and can be triggered from a distance away. This MIN report from Wednesday is a good illustration.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Wind Slabs
Moderate southwest wind and new snow will form fresh wind slabs in lee terrain features in the alpine and exposed treeline.
Look out for wind slabs in unusual places. There have been some localized moderate to strong winds from variable directions over the weekend. These wind slabs are slow to bond where they sit over cold sugary facets. There is also potential for wind slabs to step down to the late January persistent weak layer.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Feb 19th, 2021 4:00PM
