Summary
Confidence
Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain on Thursday
Weather Forecast
The ridge of high pressure will continue to keep the region dry through Tuesday. Ridgetop winds are light from the SE. Freezing levels could rise to 2100m. The pattern will start to change on Wednesday afternoon. Light-moderate (up to 15mm) precipitation is expected with freezing levels near 1100m. Alpine temperatures could drop to -9, and treeline temps may hover near -3. Weather models seem to be conflicting with precipitation amounts for the outlook. Thursday may bring another 10-15mm, accompanied by moderate NW winds.
Avalanche Summary
No new avalanche observations reported today.
Snowpack Summary
Surface snow conditions consist mainly of crusts that are developing due to melt/freeze conditions. Surface faceting has been occurring on sheltered, shady aspects. Surface hoar development up to 5mm has been reported at treeline, and below treeline. These may be our next layers of concern once buried. Danger is elevated in the afternoon due to daytime warming, and lowered in the morning if there is a significant re-freeze overnight. There is a four finger soft slab on north aspects that is 10-20 cm thick and is settling and bonding due to warm temperatures. In the alpine on exposed North-North East aspects there are pencil-4 finger wind slabs. The Feb 01 (120201) rain crust is down 10-40 cm up to about 2000 metres. The mid-January crust is down between 50-100 cm, and the mid December crust is buried down up to 200 cm.
