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Avalanche Forecast

Mar 7th, 2019–Mar 8th, 2019
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be low
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be low
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Lizard-Flathead.

Wind affected snow is the main concern for Friday. Seek out sheltered areas where new snow hasn't been redistributed into wind slabs.

Confidence

Moderate -

Weather Forecast

Thursday night: Mainly cloudy with continuing isolated flurries bringing a trace of new snow. Moderate southwest winds, increasing to strong in the alpine.Friday: A mix of sun and cloud with isolated flurries and a trace of new snow. Light to moderate southwest winds decreasing over the day. Alpine high temperatures around -11.Saturday: Mainly cloudy. Light southwest winds. Alpine high temperatures around -9.Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud. Light southwest winds. Alpine high temperatures around -8.

Avalanche Summary

Loose dry avalanches have recently been reported running in the weakening faceted (sugary) snow of the upper snowpack. Normally this is a "good skiing" avalanche problem of no real concern; however, they have been gradually growing in size and approaching size 2 (big enough to injure or bury a skier). A couple of small wind slabs were also recently reported. Previous loose dry and wind slab problems are a diminishing concern with new snow and wind forming new and likely touchier wind slabs.

Snowpack Summary

Light new snow amounts have buried a mix of hard and soft wind slabs in open alpine terrain as well as pockets of soft snow in sheltered and shaded areas. The new snow has also buried widespread sun crusts of varying thickness on south-facing slopes.There are three layers of surface hoar that have the potential to remain preserved in the upper snowpack. One is down 30-50 cm, another is down 40-80 cm, and the last one is down 80-120 cm. These layers are most likely to be found between 1600 and 1900 m. The recent prolonged period of cold temperatures has been transforming the upper and mid snowpack into sugary, faceted grains, progressively eliminating the properties of a stiff overlying slab above these weak layers and diminishing concern for their potential to produce avalanches.The lower snowpack is maintaining strength in deeper snowpack areas.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Strong southwest winds and and light new snow have been forming thin new wind slabs on lee slopes and behind exposed terrain features. Older, more stubborn slabs can be found on all aspects.
Whumpfing, shooting cracks and recent avalanches are all indicators of unstable snow.Use caution around freshly wind loaded features near ridgecrests and on crossloaded slopes.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 1.5