Avalanche Forecast

High - Confidence is due to a stable weather pattern with little change expected.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy, moderate wind from the northwest, alpine temperatures drop to -12 C.

FRIDAY: Mix of sun and cloud in the morning with increasing cloud in the afternoon, light wind in the morning then moderate southwest gusts in the afternoon, alpine high temperatures around -6 C.

SATURDAY: Periods of moderate snowfall with 5-20 cm possible, moderate gusts in the morning then easing wind in the afternoon, alpine high temperatures around -8 C.

SUNDAY: Sunny, moderate wind from the northwest, alpine high temperatures around -6 C.

No significant avalanche activity has been reported since the weekend. A natural avalanche cycle during last weekend's storm included some large (size 2.5) deep persistent slab avalanches in the Elk Valley (see photos in this MIN report) that appear similar to avalanches in that area in mid-January, which suggests the deep persistent slab problem will continue to resurface during stormy periods.

Variable amounts of wind affected snow sits above a widespread rain crust that exists up to roughly 2100 m. The Elk Valley has 5-15 cm of snow above the crust and the eastern slopes have 15-30 cm above the crust. A well consolidated mid-pack overlies generally weak basal facets, that may be possible to trigger in isolated shallow rocky start zones.

• Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.
• When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.