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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 1st, 2021–Jan 2nd, 2021
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be high
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be high
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Vancouver Island.

Ok I guess I am a little concerned and also a bit disappointed. Over the past three days I have got a few reports of skiers triggering avalanches (luckily with out consequences), heard reports of numerous avalanches triggered by sleds and then to cap it off an out of bounds boarder triggered a slide near Mt Washington on Wednesday, spent the night out and now will have to deal with some very serious possibly life altering injuries. To be blunt... What is it about HIGH HAZARD that folks did not comprehend? High as stated by the Avalanche Canada website states "Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain is NOT recommended. Natural avalanches likely human triggered very likely. Large avalanches in many areas and very large avalanches in specific areas...." So it is easy, stay out of ALL avalanche terrain when the bulletin says HIGH.. It is just that simple. Trust me we forecasters don't use HIGH lightly and really think before we select that box. And really it is not that often we see HIGH on the island bulletin. Take it from me, one who has been involved in avalanche incidences where folks have been seriously hurt and even died, you don't want this to be a part of your life and don't want your families to deal with the loss of YOU... It is not cool!

Past Weather

An average of 30 cm of new snow fell in our island mountains (mainly on Wednesday) with the most (47 cm) near 5040 and least up north near Mt Cain (6 cm). Thursday saw small amount of new snow (2 to 10 cm). Winds were strong SE to SW during Wednesday's storm and light Thursday. Temps during the storm were -1 to -3 and then things cooled Wednesday night down to -5, rising to near 0 Thursday.

Weather Forecast

Well it's a bad news good news kind of weather forecast... The bad news is that after a moderate amount of snowfall Thursday night into early Friday morning, things will warm up significantly and there is a high likelihood of moderate to heavy rain in the hills. The good news is that it will be a short lived event, things will cool off again and we will see a blast of new snow Saturday. Things will then mellow out a bit Sunday. Friday: 10 to 20 cm of snow fallowed by 15 to 50 mm of rain, winds strong SE to SW, temps 0 rising to +4 then cooling to 0/-1, freezing levels 1400 rising to 2600 falling to 1300 m. Saturday: 20 to 80 cm of new snow, winds extreme to strong SW, temps 0 to -3, freezing level 1400 m. Sunday: 0 to 15 cm of new snow, winds strong SE to SW dropping to moderate SE to SW, temps -2 to -6, freezing level 700 to 1000 m.

Terrain Advice

Stay out of all avalanche terrain when the hazard rating is HIGH!Avoid exposure to terrain traps when and if rain saturates the snowpack. Slow moving wet loose avalanches have a lot of force and can push you off a cliff or crush you up against rocks and trees. Avoid zones of wind loaded snow during and after Saturday's storm, and give the snowpack time to heal and bond before you go get rad. Remember you can play in the snow everyday... Its just a matter of picking the right place to play... Stick to low angle forested zones when the hazard ratings are high.

Snowpack Summary

A bit of new snow now sits on the significant dump of snow we got on Wednesday. Wednesday's storm snow seams to now be bonding moderately to the old snow below.

Snowpack Details

  • Surface: Wind pressed surfaces in open regions (ridge tops and open slopes) with preserved pow in the trees
  • Upper: Low density snow from Wednesday's storm
  • Mid: Well settled with some old crusts
  • Lower: Well settled

Confidence

High - Weather models in agreement and good field data.

Avalanche Problems

Loose Wet

Rain saturating the upper snowpack during Friday morning's warm up will certainly result in loose wet avalanches and possibly wet slab avalanches. Location: all aspects and elevations especially treeline and below treeline Likelihood of triggering: likely via natural activity and very likely by human traffic. Possible size: size one to two

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 1

Storm Slabs

Saturdays significant new snowfall amounts will most certainly result in storm slab avalanches. These slabs will be most sensitive Saturday, but will take some time to heal and bond well into Sunday. Location: all aspects and elevations especially NW to NE slopes in the alpine and treeline. Likelihood of triggering: likely via natural triggering and very likely with human activity. Possible size: size one to three.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 1