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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 6th, 2019–Jan 7th, 2019
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Banff Yoho Kootenay.

Wait a little bit longer for the storm snow to settle. Human triggering still likely. Make conservative terrain choices.

Weather Forecast

A short pulse of precip came through Bow Summit today that deposited about 5cm of snow. It is expected to clear tonight and into tomorrow. Temperatures will remain seasonal. The wind has been over forecasted of late, but expect moderate velocity from the SW.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 70 cm of storm snow with variable wind effect has put a dense load over the persistent weak layers. In thicker snow pack areas, the Dec. 10th weak layer of facets is now down 80-120cm with a stronger snowpack below. In thin snowpack areas, the Dec.10th layer is mixed in with the basal facets and October crust.

Avalanche Summary

The natural avalanche cycle has tapered off, but conditions are still primed for human triggering. Wide propagations were observed near Serac Creek in Kootenay National Park today. They likely ran in the height of the storm (Friday). They were reported as approx 40cm deep and size 2.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Wednesday

Avalanche Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

There is the very real potential of a slab initiating on the weak basal layers (Oct. 30 layer), or a storm slab "stepping down" to cause a large avalanche. This problem will be around for some time.
Be aware of the potential for wide propagations which could result in large avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 3.5

Storm Slabs

Lots of recent snow load will require some time to stabilize. These storm slabs exist in many areas and should be treated with caution in avalanche terrain, but should only be a problem in the short term. Expect it to last for a couple more days.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1.5 - 3