Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Tuesday

Snowin' and blowin' into Tuesday... sounds like a good time to stick to sheltered trees down low. Clearing up Wednesday into Thursday. TUESDAY: Snow (20-30cm). Moderate to strong south / west winds (40-70 Km/hr). Freezing level 1500 metres with alpine high temperatures around -1.WEDNESDAY: A mix of sun and cloud and isolated flurries. Moderate north/west winds 20-40 Km/hr. Freezing level to 1200 metres with alpine high temperatures around -5. THURSDAY: Sunny with cloudy periods. Winds becoming light westerly. Freezing level to 1000 metres with alpine high temperatures of -4.

On Sunday, skiers cut a size 1 wind slab on a steep north aspect near 2000m elevation, with a 25 cm thick crown. On Saturday, size 1-1.5 wind slabs were reported near Valemount, running naturally and also when cut by skiers on high north/east facing aspects near 2300m. Slabs ran within the storm snow, crown heights approximately 20cm.Reports from a week ago included several small (size 1) skier-triggered and ski cut storm slabs on high elevation north aspects. These slabs failed on a surface hoar layer buried earlier this month that is mentioned in our snowpack discussion, found down about 25 cm at the time. Looking forward, fresh storm slabs, blown in by moderate to strong winds are the chief concern.

New snow fall amounts into Monday vary widely (from 3-22cm) throughout the region, with 7-12cm being the average. Winds, however, have been moderate to strong from the south/west, creating fresh wind slabs on down wind (lee) slopes. Last week saw a wind-affected 15-30 cm of new snow, which sits on a variety of snow surfaces: older storm snow or wind slabs up high, or sun crusts at lower elevations and on south aspects. Surface hoar layers have been reported on shaded aspects at higher elevations and can likely now be found at approximately 20 and 40 cm below the surface. New snow amounts have been tapering with elevation and below about 1800 m, reduced accumulations have buried a supportive crust on all aspects.Persistent weak layers from early January and mid-December are still being reported by local operators. They are generally considered dormant, but could wake up with a surface avalanche stepping down, a large cornice fall, or a human trigger in a shallow or variable-depth snowpack area. These layers consist of sun crust, surface hoar and/or facets.