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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 25th, 2017–Feb 26th, 2017
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Lizard-Flathead.

There is uncertainty with snowfall amounts Saturday night through Sunday night. If accumulations are on the higher end of estimates then expect Danger ratings to be elevated.

Confidence

Low - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Sunday

Weather Forecast

SUNDAY: Flurries overnight Saturday through Sunday, accumulation 10-20cm possible/ Alpine temperature -7 C / Light east windMONDAY: Isolated flurries, accumulation 5-10cm possible Sunday night into Monday morning / Light to moderate west wind / Alpine temperature -8TUESDAY: Mix of sun and cloud / Light to Moderate west wind / Alpine temperature -9More details can be found on the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Avalanche Summary

Explosives control near Fernie resulted in a deep persistent avalanche on Friday; this avalanche was size 2.5 on a north aspect at 2000 metres, and is believed to have released on the mid-December facets. There was a report on Tuesday of a natural avalanche size 3.5 on Mt Hosmer on an East aspect at 2100 metres that appears to have released on or stepped down to the weak deep persistent layer of sugary facets near the ground. On Wednesday we had a report of a size 3.0 avalanche on "Big Steep Mother" bowl on a northeast aspect at 2100 metres in the alpine in the Lizard range. This avalanche appears to have been started by a cornice fall that released a storm slab that then "stepped down" to deeply buried weak facets.

Snowpack Summary

The recent 50-60 cm of storm snow from last week is settling into a storm slab. This slab sits above a thick rain crust below 1900 m and a generally well settled snowpack. Isolated basal weaknesses may still exist in shallow snowpack areas. These weak areas appear to be on north-northeast aspects in the alpine. If the winds shift direction over the next few days, watch for new wind loading on south-west aspects.

Avalanche Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

There have been two natural deep persistent slab releases in the past few days in the Lizard range. Both of these avalanches were on northeast aspects in the alpine, and released to size 3.0 or larger.
If triggered the storm slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely

Expected Size: 2 - 4

Storm Slabs

Deep storm slabs (50-60cm) may take some time to settle and bond to the old surface. This problem may linger in areas with a hard rain crust below the storm snow.
Use caution in lee areas. New snowfall mixed with wind loading will create slabs.Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2