Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Wednesday night and Thursday: Another wave associated with the frontal system should bring some light precipitation quantities (10 mm until Thursday evening) and with strong W winds easing off a bit Thursday but staying in the moderate to strong speeds.  Freezing levels rising to 2000 m.Friday: Precipitation should start tapering off as the westerly flow weakens. Temperatures and freezing level are expected to remain high. Winds are also looking similar in the moderate to strong from the W. Saturday: Some light precipitation is expected but not as significant as before. Light SW winds and freezing levels staying at a similar height as Friday but starting to drop.

There was a widespread natural avalanche cycle in the Lizard Range region up to size 3 on all aspects and all elevations. Some natural loose and slab avalanche activity was also observed in the South Rockies up to size 2.5 also at all elevations some of which are suspected to have been triggered by cornice fall.

The warm storm has already added a significant load onto the snowpack (around 30 mm of water equivalent in the higher snowfall areas). Another pulse of precipitation will add weight onto the storm slab and the already moist/wet snowpack below the freezing line (around 2000 m.).  In the alpine and at treeline, the new snow sits on a hard wind slabs lee of N, SW and W winds in alpine and treeline features, a well developed surface hoar in shaded areas above 1700 m., a melt-freeze crust below that elevation and a 3 cm sun crust on solar aspects at all elevations. At lower elevations, the wet precipitation will keep soaking up the snowpack possibly weakening it especially where there is a good buried sliding surface like a crust.