Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Nov 28th, 2015 8:30AM

The alpine rating is below threshold, the treeline rating is below threshold, and the below treeline rating is below threshold. Known problems include Loose Wet and Wind Slabs.

jlammers, Avalanche Canada

South Rockies.

Warming forecast for the next few days will increase the Avalanche Danger, especially at higher elevations. If you are out in the mountains, please post your observations to the MIN

Summary

Weather Forecast

A dry ridge of high pressure will continue to bring clear skies and valley fog to the region for the forecast period. The strong inversion will continue until Monday with alpine temperature hovering at around 5' celcius while valley temperatures will remain well below freezing. Ridgetop winds should remain light to moderate from the northeast.

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanches have been reported. Given our current inversion, I would expect loose wet avalanche activity on steep, sun-exposed slopes. If you are out in the mountains, please post your observations to the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

Snowpack observations have been very limited as the season commences. Initial reports suggest there is enough snow above around 1700m for avalanches to occur. Terrain below treeline is reported to be below threshold for avalanche activity.Current surfaces are likely a mix of stubborn wind slabs in exposed higher elevation terrain, and loose faceted snow and surface hoar in more sheltered areas. Depending on the time of day, steep south-facing slopes at higher elevations may be moist or re-frozen due to solar radiation and the current temperature inversion. Just below the surface you may find a thick rain crust which exists up to at least treeline elevation. Where it exists, this crust has added strength to the current snowpack. That said, the combination of a crust, facets and surface hoar could prove to be a significant weak layer if it ever snows again. In general there is a lot of uncertainty regarding snowpack structure throughout the region. I would dig down and test for weak layers before committing to any steeper lines.

Problems

Loose Wet

Unseasonably warm temperatures and sun will increase the chances of loose wet avalanche activity on steep, sun-exposed slopes in the alpine and at treeline. Watch for conditions that change throughout the day.

Watch for clues, like sluffing off of cliffs, that the snowpack is warming up. >Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.>

Aspects: North.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Wind Slabs

Continued warm temperatures should help decrease the reactivity of recently formed wind slabs. Watch for triggering in steep, unsupported terrain, especially in spots where a hard underlying crust exists.

If you are increasing your exposure to avalanche terrain, do it gradually as you gather information. >Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain. >

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Nov 29th, 2015 2:00PM