Avalanche Forecast

Good - The weather pattern is stable

Conditions will remain dry and mild through the forecast period with diurnal fluctuations in the freezing level (the spring-like pattern where the temperature can drop by up to 10 degrees overnight only to rise again through the day). A cold front moving in from the northeast will being light perception through Friday and Saturday before clear skies return on Sunday. Winds will be predominately light from the north to northeast through the period. Freezing levels are forecast to reach a high of 1600m on Friday, and 1200m on Saturday and Sunday.

Things appear to be locked up tight and no new avalanches have been reported in the last couple of days.

A wide spread crust can now be found all the way to ridge crest. Surface hoar has been reported to be growing above this crust in the areas around Nelson - keep an eye on this layer it will become our next problem interface. While the crust might make for less than awesome riding conditions it is effectively "caping the snowpack and is doing a good job of protecting the buried weak layers bellow. That said, recent snowpack tests suggest that the mid-January surface hoar layer could still produce an avalanche if a large enough trigger was applied in a thin rocky spot. It can be found down about 1m in the alpine and 50-60cm at treeline. The mid-December crust/facet/surface hoar weakness may persist in the mid to lower snowpack at higher elevations.