Avalanche Forecast

Poor - Due to the number of field observations

Synopsis: The weather pattern should remain cool and unsettled through the weekend. Expect periods of light to moderate precipitation mixed with sunny breaks most days. The greatest amount of precipitation should be on Saturday (5-10 mm or cm). Freezing levels should climb to 1800-2000 m each day and rebound to around 1500 m overnight. Ridgetop winds are generally light to moderate from the southwest.

Expect loose wet avalanches in steep terrain if it is raining or during sunny periods, especially if the sun or rain is affecting fresh snow. New storm of wind slabs may develop in higher terrain if we see significant new snow accumulation. Make conservative terrain choices if you see 30 cm of new snow or more in 24-48 hours or significant loading from strong winds. There is still potential for deep persistent slabs to wake up. This is most likely during periods of heavy rain or warm temperatures and strong solar radiation. Your best bet is to pack it in when the snow surface is becoming really wet and mushy.

This is a broad general summary of conditions in the region. This summary is based solely on recent weather data and previous snowpack information. It should be supplemented with local observations to help assess avalanche danger. Over the past week we have seen moderate amounts of new snow mixed with showers or periods of rain below 1600-1800 m. Westerly winds have likely formed pockets of wind slab at higher elevations in lee of ridges and terrain features. The upper snowpack generally consists of layers of moist or wet snow mixed with several well bonded crusts. Most areas are likely below threshold for avalanches below 1300-1500 m depending on aspect. Daytime warming and periods of sun may moisten the surface snow, which could refreeze into a crust if temperatures drop overnight.The late January/early February persistent weak layer is deeply buried but could still wake up during periods of heavy precipitation (especially rain) or significant warming and solar radiation. Be particularly wary of this on large open alpine slopes. Cornices are large in some areas and should be given a wide berth.