Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Vancouver Island.
Wind slabs may be touchy, sliding easily on a slick crust. The most likely place to trigger an avalanche is in wind loaded features just below sharp changes in terrain such as ridge crests and roll-overs.
Confidence
Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain.
Weather Forecast
Sunday night: Snowfall 5-10 cm, southwest wind building to strong, treeline temperature -2 C. Freezing level 1300 m.
Monday: Snowfall 5-10 cm, 60-80 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperature -1 C. Freezing level 1500 m.
Tuesday: Overnight snowfall 5-10 cm then cloudy, 40-60 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperature -4 C. Freezing level 1100 m.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, light southwest wind building to strong, treeline temperature -3 C. Freezing level 1100 m.
Avalanche Summary
Explosive control work on Sunday produced wind slab avalanches up to size 1.5. Small loose wet avalanches were reported in the afternoon.
Snowpack Summary
Small amounts of new snow and southwest wind are building wind slabs in lee terrain features.Â
30-50 cm of new and recent snow sits on a widespread hard melt-freeze crust found across the region. The crust is thickest at low elevations and on sun-exposed slopes. The crust may not exist on high alpine terrain on north aspects. Preliminary observations suggest the overlying snow is bonding to the crust.
The remainder of the snowpack is well-bonded.
Below treeline, snowpack depths are below threshold for avalanches in many areas.
Terrain and Travel
- Avoid freshly wind loaded features, especially near ridge crests, roll-overs and in steep terrain.
- Closely monitor how the new snow is bonding to the crust.
- Keep in mind the crust offers an excellent bed surface for avalanches.
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
Small, fresh wind slabs will likely be reactive as they form. Deeper wind slabs may be triggerable over a slick crust.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2