Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 1st, 2016 8:09AM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is low, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Loose Dry.

bcorrigan, Avalanche Canada

Cariboos.

Warm temperatures and strong solar effect may be a game changer this weekend. Stay alert to snowpack changes!

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Wind effect is extremely variable

Weather Forecast

A modified, dry arctic air mass remains over the much of the province. Expect valley fog in the morning at lower elevations and sunshine in the alpine for most of the interior of BC. Moderate temperatures aloft, with above freezing layers of warm air, will pass through the Province during the weekend.

Avalanche Summary

Earlier in the week there were reports of skier triggered soft slabs up to size 1.5 These were mostly soft slabs 5-30 cm thick. Progressive warming in the alpine with sunny conditions may result in loose natural avalanches on steep south-facing slopes. Continued warming through the weekend may create a denser slab within the recent storm snow.

Snowpack Summary

Wind slabs, both hard and soft, may be found on any recently wind-affected terrain, especially at alpine and treeline elevations. 40-70 cm recent dry snowfall overlies a mid- and lower snowpack which is reported to be well settled. There may be some storm snow interfaces to watch in specific areas. Storm slab properties may change as the alpine gets sun and the temperatures rise. The early December weak layer (about a metre down) is now hard to find and unlikely to be triggered, except with a very heavy trigger. At the base of the snowpack, on high north aspects, basal facets may overlie glacial ice.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Recent changes in wind direction will mean soft and hard wind slabs on virtually all aspects, pay close attention as you transition into new terrain, especially at tree line and above.

Back off if you encounter hard, breakable or drum-like snow.>Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain. >Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow. >Avoid slopes with glide cracks.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 3

Loose Dry

Warm upper elevation temperatures combined with strong solar effect set the stage for loose sluffs out of steep terrain. These could be big enough to injure or bury a rider.

Minimize exposure to steep sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong. >Watch for clues, like sluffing off of cliffs, that the snowpack is warming up. >Be aware of party members below you that may be exposed to your sluffs. >

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Jan 2nd, 2016 2:00PM