Avalanche Forecast

Good - -1

A strong ridge of high pressure is expected to keep the region mostly clear and dry for the forecast period. Moderate northerly winds on Thursday are expected to shift to southerlies of Friday, before diminishing on Saturday. Freezing levels are expected to hover around 1000m on Thursday before spiking to 2000m on Friday, but back down to 1500m for Saturday.

Recent reports include a couple of natural cornice-triggered 70-80cm thick wind slab avalanches as big as Size 3 on north and northeast facing alpine slopes. One natural Size 2.5, 80cm thick slab avalanche associated with the mid-January facets was observed on a southeast facing slope at 1600m. Check out the incident database (link under the Bulletins tab) for a report of a slope-cut stepping down to the mid-January facets in the Monkton Creek area near Barkerville. Large persistent slab avalanches that propagate across entire slopes are possible, especially with heavy triggers such as step-down avalanches and cornice falls. The recent storm snow also remains sensitive to human triggers with several small sluffs and Size 1 to 2, 35-45cm thick slab avalanches.

Total snowpack depths are well above average or even new record depths for this time of year. Recent warm temperatures and upside-down storms created a touchy surface slab. Other weaknesses within and under (mid-January facets) the 100-150cm of settled storm snow create the potential for step-down avalanches, but things seem so be settling rapidly. Moderate southerly or southwesterly winds have created wind slabs and large fragile cornices in exposed lee and cross-loaded terrain. Snowpack tests on the mid-January facets consistently produce sudden fractures. This weakness seems to be particularly touchy below 1500m where there is an associated crust.