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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 5th, 2017–Jan 6th, 2017
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Cariboos.

Persistent weaknesses deeper in snowpack still can't be totally trusted. Approach big open slopes with caution, especially in shallow snowpack areas.

Confidence

Moderate - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

FRIDAY: Cloudy with isolated flurries bringing trace amounts of fresh snow, light southerly winds, alpine temperature around -10.SATURDAY: Cloudy with isolated flurries and trace amounts of fresh snow, light southeasterly winds, alpine temperature around -10.SUNDAY: Mainly cloudy with light flurries, light becoming moderate southwesterly winds and alpine temperatures around -15.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been reported. Lingering wind slabs may remain reactive to human triggering on specific features, such as the immediately lee of ridges and sun-exposed slopes.

Snowpack Summary

Surface hoar and surface facets may buried by up to 15 cm of fresh snow in some places. In exposed areas at all elevations, recent winds have resulted in scouring, hard wind slabs, and thicker reactive wind slabs in unusual places as the winds shifted from west to northeast. Moderate southeasterly winds are likely keeping winds slabs fresh in some areas, while old wind slabs are breaking down with faceting in other areas. Facets and/or surface hoar buried mid-December recently gave moderate but broken snowpack test results where it was found down a metre or more. In a shallow snowpack area, recent snowpack tests gave moderate sudden collapse results on this persistent weakness. This suggests that the primary concern for persistent slab avalanches is in shallow snowpack areas; however, the potential for step-down avalanches remains where it is deeper. The lower snowpack is well bonded and features a thick rain crust near the ground.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Touchy wind slabs are lurking below ridge crests and behind terrain features on all aspects. Watch for wind slabs in unusual places, including open areas at lower elevations.
Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.Avoid travelling in areas that have been reverse loaded by winds.Minimize exposure to sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

Triggering a weak layer of facets and/or surface hoar buried mid-December may still be possible in parts of the region where the snowpack is shallower. Dig down and test for weaknesses before committing to any big open steep slope.
Choose regroup spots that are out of avalanche terrain.Avoid convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Unlikely

Expected Size: 2 - 3