Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 2nd, 2022–Jan 3rd, 2022

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Jasper.

Stay away from steep terrain traps. Careful snowpack evaluation and conservative decisions are prudent until Saturday night's 100km/hr wind impacts can be assessed. Expect to find hard wind slabs in unusual locations.

Weather Forecast

Monday will be clouds with flurries, some sun, -10C, and light winds gusting 35km/hr. Tuesday will be similar, -19C, and light winds. Wednesday is a mix of sun and cloud, no new snow, -21C, and light winds. Thursday could be cloudy, flurries, 4cm of snow, -21C, and light winds.

Snowpack Summary

Cold temps penetrated deep into the upper snowpack promoting faceting. Wind slab pockets are present on all aspects, tree line and above especially after 100km/hr winds Saturday night. The mid-pack is supportive with the Dec 1st interface down 40cm in most locations. Basal faceting continues below the Nov 5 crust about 15cm up from the ground.

Avalanche Summary

There was no patrol on Sunday. Jan 1 Greg reports on MIN some small naturals on the upper Churchill slabs. Saturday's explosive control on Medicine Slabs produced loose dry and fast moving facet avalanches to the road from steep treeline terrain. Friday's Maligne patrol noted several loose dry size 1.5 running far on a previous hard surface.

Confidence

Due to the number and quality of field observations on Monday

Avalanche Problems

Loose Dry

Significant activity was noted in the Maligne range with naturals and explosive control on Saturday. Expect warmer temperatures the next couple of days to temper it's reactivity but not eliminate it. Be attentive for the sun acting as a trigger.

Be careful of loose dry sluffing in steep, confined or exposed terrain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Wind Slabs

Variable wind directions has caused reverse loading. A brief 100km/hr wind event Saturday night exacerbated the problem with the potential for loading to occur further down slope. Careful assessment is required with local terrain influences.

If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
Variable winds may create pockets of wind slab in some unexpected locations.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5

Deep Persistent Slabs

Natural deep avalanches are getting less frequent yet it remains a low probability and high consequence event if you push your luck. Observations show that deep persistent slabs can be initiated by large triggers like cornice failures.

Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices which could trigger the deep persistent slab.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1.5 - 3