Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Jan 2nd, 2022 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Loose Dry, Wind Slabs and Deep Persistent Slabs.
Garth Lemke,
Stay away from steep terrain traps. Careful snowpack evaluation and conservative decisions are prudent until Saturday night's 100km/hr wind impacts can be assessed. Expect to find hard wind slabs in unusual locations.
Summary
Weather Forecast
Monday will be clouds with flurries, some sun, -10C, and light winds gusting 35km/hr. Tuesday will be similar, -19C, and light winds. Wednesday is a mix of sun and cloud, no new snow, -21C, and light winds. Thursday could be cloudy, flurries, 4cm of snow, -21C, and light winds.
Snowpack Summary
Cold temps penetrated deep into the upper snowpack promoting faceting. Wind slab pockets are present on all aspects, tree line and above especially after 100km/hr winds Saturday night. The mid-pack is supportive with the Dec 1st interface down 40cm in most locations. Basal faceting continues below the Nov 5 crust about 15cm up from the ground.
Avalanche Summary
There was no patrol on Sunday. Jan 1 Greg reports on MIN some small naturals on the upper Churchill slabs. Saturday's explosive control on Medicine Slabs produced loose dry and fast moving facet avalanches to the road from steep treeline terrain. Friday's Maligne patrol noted several loose dry size 1.5 running far on a previous hard surface.
Confidence
Due to the number and quality of field observations on Monday
Problems
Loose Dry
Significant activity was noted in the Maligne range with naturals and explosive control on Saturday. Expect warmer temperatures the next couple of days to temper it's reactivity but not eliminate it. Be attentive for the sun acting as a trigger.
- Be careful of loose dry sluffing in steep, confined or exposed terrain.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Wind Slabs
Variable wind directions has caused reverse loading. A brief 100km/hr wind event Saturday night exacerbated the problem with the potential for loading to occur further down slope. Careful assessment is required with local terrain influences.
- If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
- Variable winds may create pockets of wind slab in some unexpected locations.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Deep Persistent Slabs
Natural deep avalanches are getting less frequent yet it remains a low probability and high consequence event if you push your luck. Observations show that deep persistent slabs can be initiated by large triggers like cornice failures.
- Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices which could trigger the deep persistent slab.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Jan 3rd, 2022 4:00PM
